THE BIG STORY: Iran Deal Hopes Light Up Futures
The dominant force moving markets this morning is a wave of optimism around the U.S.-Iran conflict. Stock futures rose early Wednesday amid reports that the U.S. and Iran were nearing an agreement to end the war, and after President Trump said that “Great Progress” has been made toward reaching a deal with Tehran. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.2%, and Dow futures rose roughly 304 points, or 0.62%. CNBC
Trump paused “Project Freedom,” the U.S. plan to escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing diplomatic progress. The reported framework involves Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment in exchange for U.S. sanctions relief and the release of billions in frozen Iranian funds. CNBC
European markets responded enthusiastically, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 surging 2.1%. London, Paris, and Frankfurt each gained more than 2%. Energy stocks moved in reverse, however, as oil prices fell on the prospect of the strait reopening. CNBC
BACKGROUND ON THE WAR
The U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026. The fighting left thousands dead in Iran and Lebanon, dozens killed in Israel and the Gulf Arab states, and millions displaced. Severe disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes — caused fuel shortages in parts of Asia and sent ripple effects through the global economy. Encyclopedia Britannica
A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan in early April called for an immediate halt to hostilities, the reopening of the Strait, and a 15 to 20 day negotiation window. That ceasefire has been fragile ever since. Wikipedia
Monday was a rough day. The UAE reported intercepting Iranian missiles — the first activation of its missile alert system since the ceasefire began. Oil spiked sharply, with WTI crude jumping over 4% to $106.42 per barrel and Brent rising nearly 6% to $114.44. The Dow shed over 550 points and the S&P 500 fell 0.41%. CNBC
Tuesday brought a partial recovery. Stocks crept higher after a ship successfully transited the Strait under U.S. protection and the Trump administration reiterated that the ceasefire remained in place despite Monday’s flare-up. Charles Schwab
Now this morning, deal-in-progress headlines have pushed futures sharply higher and oil lower — a relief for consumers and corporate margins alike.
EARNINGS: AMD Delivers a Big Beat
Last night’s marquee report was from AMD. The company posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, topping the $1.28 estimate, on revenue of $10.25 billion versus the $9.89 billion consensus. AMD also guided Q2 revenue to around $11.2 billion, sending shares up roughly 16% in after-hours trading. This is a strong read-through for the AI chip trade and gives the Nasdaq a separate tailwind this morning independent of the geopolitical news. Yahoo FinanceCNBC
THIS MORNING’S EARNINGS (Before the Bell)
Walt Disney, CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, Marriott, and Uber Technologies all report before the opening bell. CNBC
Disney is getting particular attention. Analysts note investors will be watching not just the numbers but how new CEO Josh D’Amaro communicates his vision for the company. It is his first earnings call since taking over from Bob Iger in March, and Wall Street wants to hear how he plans to evolve Disney+ into a broader consumer platform. CNBC
For Uber, consensus sits at $0.71 per share on $13.27 billion in revenue. One notable headwind: elevated fuel costs from the Iran war’s oil price surge may have weighed on profitability during the quarter. Yahoo Finance
ECONOMIC DATA TODAY
ADP’s private payrolls report for April is due this morning and will serve as a preview for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls — the bigger market event of the week. The NFP consensus calls for 49,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%. With the Fed firmly on hold and markets pricing essentially no rate cuts through mid-year ahead of the next FOMC on June 16-17, any softness in the labor data could shift that calculus fast. Charles Schwab + 2
CRYPTO & OTHER MARKETS
Bitcoin futures topped $80,000 earlier this week for the first time since late January, up roughly 19% over the past month. Crypto-related equities like Coinbase have been riding that momentum. Charles Schwab
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Iran deal news is driving the tape this morning. If the framework hardens into something real, expect oil to keep falling and equities to push higher — the market has been carrying a war premium for weeks. The AMD beat gives tech a separate reason to rally. The key risks today are that the deal falls apart before the open, Disney or Uber disappoint, or the ADP number comes in soft ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Watch closely before putting on new positions.
