📈 Futures at a Glance
| Index / Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Futures | 7,395.75 | ▲ +0.08% |
| Dow Futures | 50,059 | ▲ +0.05% |
| Nasdaq Futures | 28,742 | ▲ +0.09% |
| Russell 2000 Futures | 2,895 | ▲ +0.01% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $92.38 / bbl | ▼ −2.84% |
| Brent Crude | ~$99.80 / bbl | ▼ −1.50% |
| Gold | $4,745 | ▲ +1.10% |
| VIX | 17.49 | ▲ +0.58% |
Futures as of approximately 6:30 a.m. CT.
🔥 Top Stories Moving Markets
⚔️ Iran Expected to Respond to U.S. Peace Proposal Today
This is the big one. Yesterday, Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are close to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the two-month-long war. The deal would involve Iran committing to a nuclear enrichment moratorium in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets. Both sides would also stand down from their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it is reviewing the proposal and will respond to Pakistan — the key mediator — today. Markets roared on the news Wednesday: the S&P 500 hit a record close at 7,365, the Dow added 612 points, and oil cratered nearly 8%. This morning, oil is extending those losses. However, Trump posted on Truth Social that if Iran doesn’t agree, bombing will resume “at a much higher level” — a reminder the situation remains fragile.
⛽ Oil Continues to Slide — But May Not Return to Pre-War Levels
WTI is now trading around $92–$93/barrel, down from above $106 early this week after the UAE missile incident sparked fears. Before U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began in late February, oil was trading well below $70. Even with a deal, analysts at Jefferies see Brent settling around $80 in three-to-six months — still roughly 25% above pre-war levels — given lasting supply disruption and infrastructure damage in the region.
💻 AMD Surges 13%+ After Blowout Earnings; AI Rally Broadens
Advanced Micro Devices was a standout on Wednesday, popping 13–16% after reporting Q1 earnings with revenue up nearly 38% year over year, led by a 57% jump in data center revenue. Super Micro Computer surged 18% after issuing guidance that trounced Wall Street estimates. Arm Holdings beat Q4 estimates after the close, reporting a 20% revenue increase and higher-than-expected guidance driven by surging AI data center demand. On the other side, Arista Networks dropped about 12% after its gross margin barely missed expectations.
📊 Snap Falls After Hours; Big Reports on Deck Today
Snap reported Q1 revenue in line with expectations at $1.53B (up 12% YoY) and beat on daily active users at 483M. But the stock fell around 7% in after-hours after the company revealed it terminated its $400M deal with AI startup Perplexity and gave cautious Q2 guidance. Today brings a heavy earnings slate: McDonald’s (Q1, pre-market — analysts expect U.S. same-store sales up ~4% as E. coli comparisons ease), followed by Coinbase, Airbnb, Block, and DraftKings after the bell.
🏦 Jobs Data, Fed Speakers, and an Overbought S&P
Initial jobless claims hit at 8:30 a.m. CT this morning alongside preliminary Q1 productivity and unit labor costs. Wednesday’s ADP report showed private payrolls grew 109,000 in April — a solid but unspectacular number. Several Fed presidents are speaking today. Futures are still pricing no rate cut this year, despite soon-to-be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s preference for lower rates over time. One technical note worth watching: the S&P 500’s RSI has moved above 70, a level traditionally considered overbought. The index has hit record closes three days in a row.
📉 Yesterday’s Notable Movers
| Ticker | What Happened | Move |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | Blowout Q1 earnings; AI data center revenue +57% | +13–16% |
| SMCI | Q4 guidance well above consensus | +18% |
| DIS | Disney beat earnings; revenue rose 7% | +4–5% |
| ARM | Record Q4, strong AI guidance (after hours) | +6–7% |
| ANET | Arista gross margin missed by a hair | −12% |
| SNAP | Perplexity deal ends; cautious Q2 guidance (after hours) | −7% |
📅 On the Radar Today
- 8:30 a.m. CT — Initial jobless claims, Q1 productivity & unit labor costs
- Pre-market — McDonald’s Q1 earnings (exp. $2.75 EPS, $6.49B revenue)
- Wildcard — Iran’s formal response to the U.S. peace proposal — potential market-moving event
- Throughout the day — Multiple Fed speakers
- After the close — Coinbase, Airbnb, Block, DraftKings, Lyft
- Tomorrow — April nonfarm payrolls — the week’s biggest macro event
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Schwab, and CNN. Futures levels as of early Thursday morning CT. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
