Pre-Market Brief: Micron Reignites the AI Trade — Then PCE Gets the Final Word
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · Pre-Market
Well, that escalated quickly. After three days of the market fretting that the AI boom was running out of road, Micron walked in after Wednesday’s close, dropped one of the most absurd earnings reports in recent memory, and single-handedly flipped the mood. Nasdaq futures are up over 2%, the chip wreckage from Tuesday is being repaired in real time — and none of it is safe until 8:30 a.m. ET, when the Fed’s favorite inflation number lands. Here’s the setup.
Micron Just Saved the AI Trade
The numbers are almost hard to believe. Micron posted fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion — up 346% from a year ago and nearly double the prior quarter — with non-GAAP earnings of $25.11 a share versus roughly $20.20 expected. Then came the part that actually lit the fuse: management guided next quarter’s revenue to $50 billion, give or take a billion, when Wall Street was looking for under $43 billion, and pointed to multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements that lock in demand. Shares are up about 18% pre-market, near $1,230, adding roughly $200 billion in market value before the bell. SEC filing
The read-through hit the whole sector. Qualcomm jumped 10% after an investor day where it laid out plans for $15 billion in data-center revenue by 2029 and snagged Meta and Microsoft Azure as customers, AMD rose on a UBS upgrade, IBM gained on a new sub-1nm chip, and Sandisk, Western Digital, Lam, KLA and Applied Materials all caught a bid. Two days ago the worry was that AI spending would never pay off; this morning the worry is whether you own enough of it. The market’s memory, fittingly, is short. CNBC
Why it matters beyond Micron: the entire week’s selloff was built on the fear that hyperscaler AI capex was a money pit. A memory supplier guiding to $50 billion with demand locked in multi-year contracts is the strongest possible counterpunch — it says the spending is real, contracted, and accelerating. That’s the bull case in one earnings report.
But PCE Gets the Final Word (8:30 a.m. ET)
Here’s the catch that keeps this from being a victory lap: the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge drops this morning, and it has the power to undo the whole rally. Economists expect headline PCE to rise 0.5% in May (up from April’s 0.4%) and core PCE to climb 0.3% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. The same release carries the final Q1 GDP estimate, durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims — a full macro buffet at 8:30. TheStreet
The tension is simple. Micron says “the AI trade is alive”; a hot PCE print says “yes, and rates are staying high to match.” Markets currently price roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds in July, and the 10-year yield has actually eased to 4.41% this morning from 4.50% — a small but real tailwind for the bounce. A cool number lets the rally breathe; a hot one hands the hawks fresh ammunition and could turn that 2% futures gain into a fade by lunch. Benzinga
Levels: Nasdaq (NQ) and S&P (ES)
Wednesday was a quiet drift — the S&P 500 slipped 0.10% to 7,358.22 and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.43% to 25,476.44 before Micron changed everything after hours. Now the futures gap up does the heavy lifting. On the NQ, the 2%+ pop reclaims the 29,000 pivot and pushes price toward 29,380, putting 29,670 and the broken 30,089 shelf directly in the crosshairs as the levels bulls need to recapture. Support steps down at 29,000, then 28,780 (Wednesday’s low) and 28,500. Nasdaq
The S&P 500 has a cleaner near-term mission: reclaim what it lost. With ES futures up about 0.7%, the implied open sits near 7,410 — right back at the broken 7,383 early-June low (now first resistance) and pressing toward 7,420. Clear both and 7,472 and the round 7,500 are back in play; fail, and 7,358 (Wednesday’s close) followed by 7,300 are the supports. The whole map, of course, gets redrawn the instant PCE prints, so treat these as the pre-8:30 framework, not gospel. Yahoo Finance
Crypto: Left Off the Guest List
For all the risk-on energy in equities, crypto didn’t get the invite. Bitcoin is soft near $61,000, having slipped about 2% on Wednesday and failing to ride the AI-fueled futures bounce. The pattern of the week holds: a strong dollar and elevated rate-hike odds keep speculative crypto on the back foot even when stocks rip. Bitcoin will likely stay hostage to the dollar and Thursday’s inflation read — a cool PCE that pulls yields lower would do more for BTC than any amount of Micron enthusiasm. CoinDesk
Metals & Oil: Gold Loses $4,000, Crude Returns to Pre-War Lows
The commodity story is all about supply and the dollar. Gold cracked the psychologically huge $4,000 level and is trading near $3,980, hammered all week by a 2026-high dollar and rising-rate fears — the safe-haven bid has simply evaporated. Crude is the bigger headline: WTI fell another 1.7% to around $69 and Brent slid under $73, both back to levels last seen before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February, as more than 20 tankers carrying roughly 35 million barrels have now cleared the reopened Strait of Hormuz. Cheaper oil is quietly the most disinflationary thing happening this week — which is exactly what makes that 8:30 PCE print so interesting. CNBC
The Week Ahead: One Number, Then the Victory-Lap Check
Everything hinges on this morning. Once PCE, GDP, durable goods and claims clear at 8:30, the week’s macro calendar is essentially spent, leaving earnings and positioning to carry the back half. Darden reports today, Friday brings final consumer sentiment, and Monday delivers an index shake-up as Alphabet joins the Dow. If the inflation data cooperates, the Micron-led rebound has room to run into month-end. Kiplinger
| Day | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 6/25 | May PCE, Final Q1 GDP, Durable Orders, Jobless Claims; Darden | The week’s main event — can validate or kill the bounce |
| Fri 6/26 | UoM Consumer Sentiment (final), Goods Trade Balance | Sentiment and month-end positioning |
| Mon 6/29 | Alphabet joins the Dow 30 | Index reshuffle adds a megacap to the price-weighted Dow |
The one-line trade: in-line or cool PCE (core at/under +0.3%) likely lets the Micron rally extend and pulls yields lower. A hot surprise (headline above +0.5%, core +0.4%) revives the September-hike narrative, lifts the dollar, and risks fading the open. The number, not the chip rally, owns the tape today.
FAQ
Why are stock futures up on June 25?
Micron reported blowout fiscal Q3 results after Wednesday’s close — revenue of $41.46 billion (up 346% year-over-year) and non-GAAP EPS of $25.11, with next-quarter guidance of about $50 billion versus under $43 billion expected. The report reignited confidence in AI spending, sending Micron up ~18% and Nasdaq-100 futures up over 2%, with Qualcomm, AMD and other chip names rallying in sympathy.
What is expected from the May PCE report?
Economists expect headline PCE to rise 0.5% month-over-month (up from April’s 0.4%) and core PCE — the Fed’s preferred gauge — to rise 0.3% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. It’s released at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside final Q1 GDP, durable goods orders and jobless claims. A hot print could revive rate-hike fears and pressure the rally.
What are the key Nasdaq and S&P levels for June 25?
On the Nasdaq-100, this morning’s pop reclaims the 29,000 pivot and targets 29,670 then the broken 30,089 shelf, with 28,780 and 28,500 as support. On the S&P 500, the implied open near 7,410 retests the broken 7,383 low (now resistance) and 7,420, with 7,472 and 7,500 above and 7,358/7,300 as support. PCE can redraw these instantly.
Why is gold falling below $4,000?
Gold lost the $4,000 level on a trio of headwinds: a U.S. dollar at a 2026 high, rising Fed rate-hike expectations that raise the cost of holding non-yielding metal, and a collapsing geopolitical premium as Iran oil supply returns and crude falls back to pre-war levels. On a week when stocks, bonds and gold all fell together, the dollar was the only haven working.
Is this financial advice?
No. This brief is market commentary and education only. Levels are reference points drawn from prior-session and pre-market data, not trade recommendations. Manage your own risk and position sizing.
