CLOSING NUMBERS
The S&P 500 advanced 1.46% to close at a record 7,365.12, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.02% to finish at 25,838.94 — both indexes touching new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 612 points, or 1.24%, to close at 49,910.59. The Russell 2000 also logged a record, rising 1.52% to 2,888.24. It was a banner day across the board.
THE STORY OF THE DAY: IRAN PEACE OPTIMISM
The dominant market mover was a late-morning Axios report suggesting the U.S. and Iran are approaching a deal to end the war. According to the report, any agreement would include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson told CNBC that Iran was evaluating a U.S. proposal toward a resolution.
That said, the situation remains fluid. Iran’s government confirmed it is reviewing the latest U.S. peace proposal, but Tehran noted it would convey its position to Pakistani intermediaries only after finalizing its response. Trump warned Iran earlier in the day that it would face American strikes “at a much higher level and intensity” unless it agrees to terms. Trump stated he had “very good talks” with Iran over the past 24 hours and that it’s “very possible we’ll make a deal.”
The war’s complexity deepened on another front. Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut in the first such strike since the Lebanon ceasefire — coordinated in advance with Washington. Netanyahu said the target commanded the elite Radwan force, responsible for attacks against Israeli communities. Hezbollah-Israel exchanges in southern Lebanon remain an ongoing complication in the broader Pakistan-mediated peace framework.
Oil took the brunt of the peace optimism. WTI crude fell roughly 10.5% to $91.54 per barrel. Brent crude dropped 9.8% to $99.12. That’s a massive single-session move in crude, dragging the energy sector sharply lower. The S&P 500 Energy sector fell over 4%, one of the only sour spots in an otherwise bullish tape.
Meanwhile, gas prices nationally have surged to a national average of $4.54 per gallon — the highest since July 2022 — up 52% since the war began in late February. The price remains elevated even as crude markets fall, reflecting a lag between the pump and the futures markets.
EARNINGS: AI CHIPS STEAL THE SHOW
The other major catalyst was an exceptional earnings day in semiconductors.
AMD jumped 17.77% after its Q1 results came in well ahead of expectations. CEO Lisa Su told CNBC the massive forecast revision was driven by a surge in demand for CPUs fueled by the growth of agentic AI. Semiconductor peers rallied in sympathy — Nvidia added 5.5% and Intel gained 4.22%.
Super Micro Computer surged 15.49% after the AI server maker topped profit estimates despite missing on revenue. Disney gained nearly 8% after topping second-quarter earnings and revenue on strength in streaming and parks. Uber rose 6% after beating first-quarter expectations.
Corning soared 17% after announcing a partnership with Nvidia to build three advanced U.S. manufacturing facilities dedicated to optical connectivity for AI infrastructure, with the companies saying the projects will create at least 3,000 jobs and increase Corning’s optical manufacturing capacity tenfold.
On the downside, Arista Networks slipped despite beating first-quarter expectations and issuing upbeat guidance, as a narrow miss on adjusted gross margin disappointed investors. Bio-Techne fell nearly 9% after its third-quarter results disappointed.
AFTER HOURS & FUTURES
The session after the bell continued strong. Arm Holdings, which rose 13.6% during the session, jumped another 8% after hours after beating on revenue and earnings, with guidance coming in mostly in line. Gold futures are up 3.44% to $4,725.70 and silver futures are up 6.3% to $78.19 — a notable move suggesting some residual safe-haven hedging despite the equity rally, likely tied to lingering uncertainty on the Iran deal.
S&P 500 futures were trading about 0.1% higher shortly after 6 p.m. ET. With Arm’s after-hours pop and AI momentum intact, futures may see a modest lift overnight, though all eyes will be on any overnight developments out of Tehran or the Strait of Hormuz that could reshape the morning.
WHAT TO WATCH THURSDAY
- Iran response: Tehran is expected to formally respond to the U.S. proposal within 48 hours. Any breakdown or escalation would likely reverse today’s oil and equity moves quickly.
- Strait of Hormuz: Trump has paused the U.S. convoy escort operation to allow deal-making. Any resumed hostilities at the Strait would send crude right back above $100.
- Earnings: Coherent (COHR) reported after the close tonight. The AI/photonics infrastructure trade remains very much alive heading into the rest of the week.
Bottom line: Today was a textbook “war premium coming out of oil, AI premium going into chips” session. The market wants to believe a deal is close — but this conflict has surprised markets before. Stay nimble.
