Good morning. It is shaping up to be a consequential week, with markets navigating a volatile cocktail of geopolitical risk, a heavy earnings slate, and a jobs report on Friday that could reset rate expectations heading into summer.
FUTURES
Stock futures are mixed this morning as Wall Street monitors the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Dow Jones futures are holding near 49,747. On the equity side, last week closed on a strong note — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted solid gains Friday, with Apple climbing after earnings. The Nasdaq Composite closed Thursday at a record 25,114, and the Dow notched its best month since November 2024. However, momentum may be tested this week. TheStreet + 2
OIL & THE IRAN WAR
This is the dominant macro risk right now. Oil prices are choppy this morning. Brent crude is hovering near $101.94 a barrel and WTI is trading around $108.33. The driver: President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. would attempt to “free” stranded cargo ships affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure, an initiative he has dubbed “Project Freedom.” U.S. Central Command confirmed the effort will deploy guided-missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft, unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members. CNBCCNBC
Iran is not backing down. An Iranian official warned this morning that American forces will be attacked if they try to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz. This is not an idle threat. Iran’s closure of the Strait has already disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies and significant LNG volumes — the International Energy Agency has called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. TheStreetWikipedia
Exxon CEO Darren Woods warned Friday that the market has not yet absorbed the full impact of this disruption. Strategic petroleum reserves have been released and commercial inventories drawn down, but he cautioned that those buffers are finite — oil prices will rise further if the strait remains closed. Exxon said roughly 15% of its total production has been directly affected. CNBC
The bottom line on oil: the situation is re-escalating after a brief ceasefire period collapsed. Traders should expect headline-driven volatility in crude throughout the week. Any military confrontation in the strait could send WTI above $110 quickly.
EARNINGS THIS WEEK — THE HEAVY HITTERS
This week brings 126 S&P 500 earnings reports, including two Dow 30 members. Today after the close, Palantir reports first-quarter results. Tuesday brings AMD, where consensus is looking for EPS of $1.29 on revenue of roughly $9.89 billion — year-over-year growth of 34% and 33% respectively. Wednesday is the biggest day, with both Disney and Uber reporting before the open. Disney’s subscriber count and parks margins will be in focus; Uber’s gross bookings guidance of $52 to $53.5 billion will be closely watched. Thursday brings Coinbase after the close. Gotrade
There are also several notable pre-market movers already. eBay stock surged nearly 10% after GameStop submitted a proposal to acquire the e-commerce platform for $125 per share — roughly $56 billion — representing a 20% premium to Friday’s close. Seagate shares are surging after a blowout earnings report, with Micron and SanDisk also rising in sympathy. TheStreet
FRIDAY’S JOBS REPORT — THE MACRO ANCHOR
Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls report is the marquee data event. Consensus expects the U.S. economy added just 50,000 jobs in April — far below March’s blowout reading of 178,000 — with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. A weak print would stoke recession fears; a stronger-than-expected number could relieve some anxiety but is unlikely to move the Fed. CNBC
The Fed held rates at its last meeting, and notably saw three dissents on the policy statement — the most in over three decades. Markets have essentially priced out rate cuts through the end of next year. CNBC
THE BIGGER PICTURE
One data point worth watching despite the bullish headline numbers: market breadth has dropped to its narrowest level since the dot-com era. Index gains are concentrated in a handful of mega-cap AI names — Nvidia and Broadcom chief among them. This is historically a warning sign before a correction. Gotrade
Investors are also entering what is seasonally the weakest six-month stretch for equities, the classic “Sell in May” period. That said, JPMorgan’s trading desk found the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% gain in May and a 1.9% pop in June over the last decade. CNBC
BOTTOM LINE
The tape is being pulled in two directions. Earnings season remains strong — over 80% of S&P 500 reporters have beaten estimates — but the Iran conflict is an unresolved wildcard that could reprice energy costs, inflation expectations, and Fed policy all at once. Watch oil, watch the strait, and watch Friday’s jobs number. It is going to be a noisy week.
Stay disciplined out there.
This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
