TL;DR: Futures are green, oil is bleeding out, metals are ripping, crypto found a pulse, and a $1.77 trillion rocket company starts trading this morning. If you wanted a boring opex-week Friday, you picked the wrong year.
Pre-Market Snapshot — Friday, June 12, 2026
| Market | Level (pre-market) | Move |
|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500 futures) | ~7,440 | +0.5% |
| NQ (Nasdaq-100 futures) | ~29,600 | +0.4% |
| YM (Dow futures) | ~51,100 | +0.5% |
| WTI Crude | $84.23 | −3.97% |
| Brent Crude | $86.91 | −3.84% |
| Gold | $4,226 | +2.72% |
| Silver | $66.97 | +4.65% |
| Bitcoin | ~$63,300 | +1.8% |
| Ethereum | ~$1,660 | +1.0% |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.45% | −0.47% |
Equities & Futures: The Peace Trade Is On
After a week of CPI prints, helicopter shoot-downs, and the Dow casually dropping 950 points on Wednesday, the script flipped overnight. President Trump said a peace deal with Iran has been reached and is set to be signed soon, which sent Thursday’s session into full melt-up mode — the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq Composite closed up between 1.7% and 2.6%, with chip stocks leading the rebound after getting flattened last week. Investing.com
The follow-through is intact this morning: Dow futures are up about 0.5%, ES is adding roughly 0.5%, and NQ is up around 0.4% as traders price in a world where the Strait of Hormuz is a shipping lane again instead of a headline generator. Yahoo Finance
Asia got the memo first and traded it harder. South Korea’s Kospi gapped up 7% at the open — enough to trigger a buy-side sidecar halt, which is not a sentence you read every day — while Japan’s Nikkei rose 3.4%. Bloomberg reports the deal could be signed in Switzerland as soon as Sunday, conveniently right before the G7 summit kicks off in the French Alps on June 15. CNBC
Under the hood, the AI-infrastructure complex did the heavy lifting Thursday: Sandisk jumped more than 14%, Lam Research surged over 12%, and the 10-year yield slipped to 4.45% as the oil-driven inflation panic deflated. Today’s only notable data point is the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment read — a survey asking Americans how they feel after watching gas prices and headlines all month. Should be cheerful. Barchart
One housekeeping note before you click buy: this week was the June quarterly rollover for equity index futures, so volume is migrating from the M26 contracts into the September U26s, with full expiration hitting Friday, June 19. If your chart looks like liquidity left the building, it didn’t — it just changed apartments. Double-check which contract your DOM is pointed at. Linn Software
Energy: The War Premium Packs Its Bags
Crude is getting unwound in real time. WTI dropped nearly 4% in pre-market trade to $84.23 and Brent fell to $86.91, extending Thursday’s losses as peace optimism drains the geopolitical premium that’s been propping oil up since February. TheStreet
Crude is now at its lowest level in nearly two months. The reported 14-point draft agreement includes lifting oil sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days — though traders are rightly cautious, since “reopening” involves minor details like clearing mines and repairing drone-damaged energy infrastructure. Peace is bearish for oil; logistics are still logistics. Trading Economics
Metals: Gold and Silver Didn’t Get the Peace Memo
Here’s the fun divergence of the morning: while oil dumps on de-escalation, gold futures climbed 2.72% to $4,226 an ounce and silver ripped 4.65% to $66.97. TheStreet
The logic isn’t as contradictory as it looks. CPI just printed 4.2% year-over-year — the hottest in three years — wholesale inflation came in hot behind it, and yields are now falling as the war premium exits energy. Sticky 4%+ inflation plus declining nominal yields equals falling real yields, and falling real yields are basically a dinner bell for metals. Silver at $66 is also enjoying its usual habit of doing whatever gold does, but with the volume turned up. CNN
Crypto: Alive, Technically
The crypto market recovered about 1.7% over the past 24 hours to a $2.25 trillion total cap, with Bitcoin trading near $63,300 — up roughly 1.8% — as it takes another swing at reclaiming the $64,000 resistance level. The Fear & Greed index sits at 12, which is “extreme fear,” or as crypto veterans call it, Tuesday. Coingabbar
Zoom out and the picture is less cheerful: BTC has retreated from above $80,000 in May, and Ethereum around $1,660 remains pinned below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs with daily RSI hovering just above oversold. Momentum is cooling on the downside but nobody’s calling it a reversal yet. FXStreet
The wildcard today is — of course — SpaceX. Analysts note the debut could cut either way for crypto: a euphoric risk-on session lifts everything speculative, or a $75 billion liquidity vacuum pulls capital out of every other casino in town. CoinDesk
The SpaceX IPO: SPCX Launches Today
The main event. SpaceX priced its IPO Thursday night at $135 per share, selling 555,555,555 shares (yes, really) to raise $75 billion — the largest IPO in history, obliterating Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29.4 billion. The stock begins trading on the Nasdaq today under the ticker SPCX, valuing the recently xAI-merged company at $1.77 trillion, or roughly $1.8 trillion fully diluted. NPR
Demand has been absurd: the offering was reportedly oversubscribed by up to four times, with around $70 billion in retail orders alone and an estimated 20% of shares allocated to retail investors. Not everyone is starry-eyed, though — Morningstar pegs fair value at $63 a share, a 53% discount to the IPO price, and North Carolina’s pension fund publicly passed on a direct stake because it was “too expensive.” Al Jazeera
What We Expect Today
A hot open. Shadow markets were pricing in a first-day pop of at least 35%, which would put the opening print somewhere north of $180. With 4x oversubscription and a fixed $135 price, the supply-demand math heavily favors an upside gap — expect a long price-discovery delay this morning, volatility halts, and spreads wide enough to drive a Starship through. Wolfe Research has already initiated coverage at Outperform with a $175 target. Barchart
A liquidity question for everything else. The open question is whether SPCX euphoria spills into broader speculative appetite or vacuums liquidity out of it — strategist James DePorre flagged exactly that rotational risk, along with the bigger one: the months ahead, when lockups expire and large blocks of insider stock hit the tape. TheStreet
Index mechanics matter. Nasdaq changed its rules in May so a mega-cap like SpaceX can enter the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days — meaning forced passive buying could arrive within weeks. The S&P 500, meanwhile, declined to bend its profitability rules, so no SPX inclusion any time soon. Separately, the regular Nasdaq-100 rebalance effective June 22 adds space-and-AI names Rocket Lab and CoreWeave, which partly explains why the whole space sector is green pre-market: Rocket Lab +4%, EchoStar (a SpaceX stakeholder) +6%. Stocktwits via TradingView
And the history lesson. Splashy mega-IPOs have a well-documented habit of skyrocketing early and returning to earth with a thud — analysts are already drawing the comparisons. Day one is a sentiment event; the real verdict comes after the lockups. If you’re trading SPCX today, you’re trading emotion, not valuation. Size accordingly. CBS News
ES Levels: The Map for Today
ES week at a glance (approximate daily ranges, June contract basis). Mark exact levels off your own DOM — rollover skews continuous charts.
ES is hovering in the 7,420–7,450 zone pre-market after Thursday’s monster reclaim. The bull case is simple: hold above 7,400 and there’s air up to the prior value-area-high zone near 7,541, with the Globex all-time high at 7,570.75 sitting just beyond it as the obvious magnet on a peace-deal-signing headline. Recent market-profile work on TradingView flags that ATH matrix as the upside reference for both indices. TradingView
ES downside: 7,400 (pivot / overnight shelf) → 7,350 → 7,300 → ~7,250 (week-low zone)
Lose 7,400 with momentum and Thursday’s rally starts looking like a one-day wonder — first stop 7,350, then the 7,300 handle, with the week’s panic-low zone around 7,250 as the line between “healthy retest” and “the peace trade was priced for perfection.” Given that the actual signing is still a weekend event in Switzerland, headline risk cuts both ways into the close. CNBC
NQ Levels: SpaceX Day on the Tech Index
NQ sits near 29,600 pre-market, still digesting the early-June flush that knocked roughly 2,000 points (about 6.5%) off the contract in three sessions before this week’s recovery. The structure overhead is well-defined: an unfilled gap zone around 29,750–29,830, the prior value area near 29,920, the round 30,000, and the Globex all-time high at 30,379. TradingView
NQ downside: 29,400 (overnight shelf) → 29,000 (round / weekly pivot) → ~28,400 (June flush low zone)
Today’s tape warning: SPCX opens on the Nasdaq, and a $75 billion debut can pull liquidity and attention out of the rest of the index around the opening cross — expect chop and thinner books around whatever time price discovery completes, likely late morning. If the IPO rips and chips stay bid, the gap zone overhead is the first real test; if SPCX disappoints sky-high expectations, NQ is the index that wears it. Scalpers: this is a “wait for the dust” morning, not a “fade the first wick” morning — and if you’re trading a funded account, remember the eval firm doesn’t refund tuition for IPO-day heroics (check what those accounts actually cost on our futures prop firm True Cost page). Yahoo Finance
Bigger picture: with quarterly expiration next Friday and the Nasdaq-100 rebalance landing June 22, index flows will be noisy for the next week regardless of headlines. Plan your sessions around the events — UMich at 10:00 a.m. ET today, the SPCX open, and weekend deal-signing risk into the close. You can track all of it on our free trading tools page, including the economic calendar and futures expiration calendar. Barchart
FAQ
What time does SpaceX (SPCX) start trading today?
Will SpaceX join the Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500?
Why are gold and silver rallying if a peace deal is bullish?
Is today quad witching for futures?
Nothing on this page is financial advice. Levels are approximate references derived from publicly reported data and continuous-contract charts during rollover week — verify against your own platform before trading. Futures, crypto, and IPO-day equities involve substantial risk of loss. Trade small, live long.
